Trump is pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates and threatening to halt trade with countries that run surpluses against the U.S. — a bad sign for trade partners and for the Fed's independence.

• A stronger-than-expected August jobs report gave Trump the opening to demand lower rates.
• He said the U.S. deserves the world's lowest rates because its credit is strong, and warned he would stop trading with deficit countries otherwise.
• The threat is not realistic — the U.S. runs trade deficits with dozens of countries, including its biggest partners.
• The pressure campaign had eased after Warsh was picked to replace Powell as Fed chair; it is now back on.
• The timing lines up with midterm elections, where anger over high inflation is the top issue.

Outlook: Next week's inflation report is the last big data point before the Fed's mid-September meeting and will decide whether a rate cut is on the table.