Global bond selloff as Bessent downplays the turmoil
Government borrowing costs are jumping around the world, which is bad for anyone who needs a loan and for the wider economy, because expensive oil is pushing prices up everywhere.
- Japan's long-term government bond rates broke out to their highest in decades, pulling money out of US, German, and French bonds and pushing their rates up too.
- Bond rates in Germany hit a 15-year high and the UK the highest since 2008, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the situation is not dire.
- The root cause is oil: less crude is getting through the Strait of Hormuz, so prices are rising and central banks are reading it as inflation.
- Central banks plan to fight it by raising rates and slowing the economy — fewer jobs, less building, less borrowing — which cannot fix a physical shortage of oil.
- Diesel has jumped roughly two dollars a gallon in a year, hitting farms hard just as harvest and planting season begins.
Outlook: The European and Japanese central banks are expected to raise rates in the coming weeks, and Trump's push for more Venezuelan oil will not add supply fast enough to bring prices down.