Wall Street is getting very bullish on SpaceX, but the huge price targets rest on assumptions that are more than a decade out — a caution flag for investors buying at today's price.

• Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas is overweight SpaceX with a 70% upside call, built on 2040 revenue estimates of $3.5 trillion.
• Run those numbers through to earnings and they imply a stock near $5,000 by 2040 — a 28% annual return from here.
• The catch: hitting that needs something like 1,600 Starship flights a year, roughly one launch every five hours.
• The private space stations everyone is excited about — Vast, Voyager, Axiom — have under a billion dollars of revenue combined, enough to pay for about four Starship flights a year.
• Morgan Stanley also finances Elon Musk's ventures, so its enthusiasm is not neutral.

Outlook: The launch business likely grows, but the customer revenue to fill thousands of flights is a decade away, and a recession in between could reset the price long before those targets get tested.