Kevin Paffrath's Reinvest portfolio: 85% real estate, no crypto

Aug 25, 2026

A portfolio built around the bet that real estate is cheap now and stocks are near a top — bullish for patient property buyers, cautious for stock investors.

  • Reinvest keeps most of its money in real estate — homes, apartments and land in desirable spots like ski towns and the Southern California coast — bought with cash and no bank debt.
  • The rest sits in cash and Treasuries, with only a small slice in stocks and nothing at all in crypto.
  • The thesis: interest rates will fall to record lows by 2032, setting up a big property boom after the next downturn.
  • That next downturn is expected to hit stocks and AI, not housing, as AI spending slows.
  • The next winners are "practical AI" — AI that speeds up mortgage paperwork, real estate deals, cancer treatment design and software — rather than the chip and infrastructure names that led so far.

Outlook: Stocks look close to a near-term top while housing has already taken its interest-rate pain, so the plan is to buy the dip in stocks later and stay heavy in property now.

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