TSMC's business is booming but its stock has stopped climbing, a warning sign for investors who bought in at the highs.

• July revenue jumped 45% from a year earlier and AI chip demand shows no sign of slowing, yet the shares fell on the day those numbers came out.
• The stock now trades well above what the market considers fair value, so even good news no longer moves it much — expectations are already priced in.
• The Arizona plant is growing fast and Bank of America still rates the stock a buy, but the huge spending on new factories will push up costs and squeeze profits over the next few quarters.
• Intel is pushing into advanced chip packaging, an area TSMC dominates, though it lacks the scale and customer relationships to be a real threat yet.
• Taiwan's market has turned choppy, with swings of nearly a thousand points in a single day becoming normal.

Outlook: The question is no longer whether TSMC keeps growing, but whether it can grow fast enough to justify a price that leaves almost no room for disappointment — waiting for a pullback is the safer play.