Five years after taking Kabul, the Taliban are losing control as armed resistance spreads and their own leadership splits — bad for the Taliban, but no relief yet for ordinary Afghans caught in the middle.

• Three out of four Afghans can't afford basic food, water, or shelter, and most families are in debt.
• Millions are hungry and aid groups are cutting back because they've run out of money, while drought, floods, and freezing winters make it worse.
• Armed groups are multiplying — the National Resistance Front and Afghanistan Freedom Front in the north, and a new group led by ex-general Sami Sadat operating inside Kandahar, the Taliban's own heartland.
• The Taliban are split at the top between the supreme leader in Kandahar and rival officials in Kabul, and local commanders are starting to break away — one recently shot down a Taliban helicopter in a fight over gold mine profits.
• Islamic State's Afghan branch is rebuilding in the east, pulling Taliban forces away from fighting the resistance.

Outlook: The Taliban look too divided to crush the resistance quickly, but no group is strong enough to take Kabul yet, so expect a long, grinding unraveling rather than a sudden collapse.