Trump vs the Fed, and the Treasury's debt buybacks
Trump is pushing the Fed to cut interest rates while the Treasury steps in to buy back government debt — a bad sign for the dollar and for anyone holding savings in cash.
- Trump is publicly demanding rate cuts even though the economy looks fine, and good news has never been a reason for the Fed to cut.
- The Fed only cuts when things are breaking; cutting now would spark borrowing and push inflation much higher.
- The Treasury is doubling the size of its debt buybacks starting in September, effectively becoming the buyer of last resort to hold rates down.
- Government bond yields have climbed hard this year and barely dipped on the news, which suggests the plan is not working.
- Japan's currency troubles are spilling over — the US may end up buying back Treasuries that Japan needs to sell.
Outlook: Expect more Treasury intervention and continued pressure on the dollar, with a slow grind lower rather than a sudden crash.