Oil is stuck high and the Iran conflict looks set to drag on for years, which is bad for drivers, markets, and anyone hoping for stability.

• Trump claims the Strait of Hormuz is "open" thanks to a US Navy blockade, but oil flows through it are far below prewar levels — closer to 40%.
• John Mearsheimer calls it a defeat for the US: Trump can't escalate because America is low on precision missiles and Gulf allies fear Iran wrecking their oil and water facilities.
• Trump has switched to a "no war, no peace" plan — keep sanctions on, keep oil around $80–90 a barrel, and push the mess onto the next president.
• Iran holds the stronger hand and may keep squeezing shipping choke points, hitting US bases, or targeting American troops rather than sit still.
• The strain is spreading: the US oil reserve is at its lowest since 1983, and a falling Japanese yen could force Japan to dump US government bonds, pushing American borrowing costs up.

Outlook: Expect a long, tense stalemate with oil prices staying high and constant risk that one more strike tips it into a wider crisis.