The U.S. is running low on missiles and leverage against Iran, a bad sign for American military dominance in the Middle East and a strong position for Tehran.

• The U.S. has burned through most of its missile interceptors — Patriots are down from over 4,000 to about 800, and stockpiles are so thin that commanders say they must protect America before Israel.
• Iran struck U.S. targets in Jordan and Egypt to prove it can hit American assets anywhere, killing three troops and still keeping most of its missiles intact.
• Arab states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar pushed Trump to call off a major attack, fearing Iran would blow up their oil fields in return with no clear winner.
• The fight now centers on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran wants a deal — brokered through Oman — that lets it keep the ability to shut the waterway if the U.S. attacks again.
• Trump claims Iran begged for talks, but the more likely read is that Iran is negotiating from strength while Trump struggles to accept he has no knockout military option.

Outlook: A deal keeping oil flowing is within reach on terms favoring Iran, but Trump's need for a signed "win" — plus pressure from Israel and hawks — could drag the U.S. deeper in before that happens.