The Iran war looks nowhere near ending, which is bad news for oil supplies, markets, and anyone hoping for cheaper gas.

• Iran says it is ready to wait more than two years, keeping the Strait of Hormuz — a route for 20% of the world's oil — blocked by attacking ships that try to pass.
• Iran's new list of demands is maximalist: lift the naval blockade and sanctions, pull US forces from the region, pay war reparations, unfreeze its assets, and stop attacks on its allies — with no mention of giving up its nuclear program.
• JD Vance admits the standoff is only "in the middle," contradicting repeated White House claims a deal is days away.
• The economy is already showing high inflation plus job losses at the same time (stagflation), but a full collapse has been held off mainly because markets keep believing a peace deal is imminent.
• The sticking point is Israel refusing to pull out of southern Lebanon and Gaza, which Iran demands and which keeps any deal out of reach; US missile stockpiles are also running low.

Outlook: If markets stop believing peace is close and adjust to tighter oil supplies, a sharper selloff and deeper economic pain could follow.