The market surged to record highs on hope of an Iran deal that hasn't been signed, and SpaceX shares crashed back — both look like bets built on hype rather than reality.

• Treasury Secretary Bessent floated a short-term, Qatar-brokered deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and stocks jumped while oil fell hard on the news.
• The deal isn't real yet — Iran hasn't agreed, and a proposed version has zero tolls for 60 days, so the rally could reverse violently if it falls through.
• Bessent admitted the Iran conflict hurt growth, and government bond yields had spiked from 4.4% to 4.75%, which threatened the whole financial system before this reversal.
• SpaceX popped 9% on earnings then gave it all back, still losing money while burning $16 billion on AI data centers, with rocket launches under $1 billion in revenue.
• A huge wave of SpaceX insider shares unlocks starting tomorrow, more than doubling supply, with 40% of all shares free to sell by December.

Outlook: If Hormuz doesn't reopen fast and oil stays high, the rally in stocks and chipmakers could snap back hard, and SpaceX faces heavy selling pressure as its lockups expire.