Rising borrowing costs and a shaky private credit market are flashing warning signs for big tech and investors, which is bad news for stocks, homebuyers, and pension holders.

• The 30-year government bond yield hit its highest level since 2007, pushing mortgage rates up and killing hopes of Fed rate cuts in 2026.
• The cost to insure the debt of AI giants like Oracle, Meta, and Nvidia is jumping, and some of their new borrowing is priced close to junk status.
• Private credit is cracking, with a big wave of debt due this year that must be refinanced at these higher rates, and funds like Blue Owl and Blackstone seeing sharp drops.
• Inflation recently jumped at its fastest pace in years because of the Iran conflict driving up oil and gas, squeezing regular consumers who can barely afford to fill their tanks.
• A lot of AI spending is being funded by pension and 401(k) money, so a bust would hit ordinary people even if they never invested in it directly.

Outlook: Higher rates, more foreclosures, and a possible Fed rate hike this fall are expected to keep pressure on stocks and the broader economy.