Japan's Yen Crash Feeds a US Bond Market Breakdown
Bad news for markets, savers, and both the Japanese and US economies as war in Iran pushes oil, inflation, and bond yields higher all at once.
- Trump's renewed strikes on Iran have pushed oil above $95, and higher energy costs are feeding inflation everywhere.
- The Japanese yen has crashed past 163 per dollar, and Tokyo's costly attempts to prop it up keep failing against rising US rates.
- Japan is stuck in a doom loop โ expensive imported energy, record company bankruptcies, and 6%+ wholesale inflation it can't stop subsidizing.
- The 30-year US Treasury yield has sat above 5% for the longest stretch since 2007, signaling investors are losing trust in US debt and the dollar.
- Gold above $4,100 and silver above $60 show investors bracing for more inflation and possible Fed rate hikes.
Outlook: If the Iran conflict drags on, expect higher-for-longer rates, more pressure on Japan to dump US bonds, and a wave of risky corporate debt struggling to refinance.