Japan's Yen Crash Feeds a US Bond Market Breakdown

Jul 23, 2026

Bad news for markets, savers, and both the Japanese and US economies as war in Iran pushes oil, inflation, and bond yields higher all at once.

  • Trump's renewed strikes on Iran have pushed oil above $95, and higher energy costs are feeding inflation everywhere.
  • The Japanese yen has crashed past 163 per dollar, and Tokyo's costly attempts to prop it up keep failing against rising US rates.
  • Japan is stuck in a doom loop โ€” expensive imported energy, record company bankruptcies, and 6%+ wholesale inflation it can't stop subsidizing.
  • The 30-year US Treasury yield has sat above 5% for the longest stretch since 2007, signaling investors are losing trust in US debt and the dollar.
  • Gold above $4,100 and silver above $60 show investors bracing for more inflation and possible Fed rate hikes.

Outlook: If the Iran conflict drags on, expect higher-for-longer rates, more pressure on Japan to dump US bonds, and a wave of risky corporate debt struggling to refinance.

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