Trump's visit to Beijing looks set to produce a major US-China deal, which would be good news for global markets and big US financial firms but bad for anyone betting on a hard decoupling.

• Trump brought his cabinet plus CEOs from Tesla, Apple, Boeing, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Mastercard, and Visa — companies worth over $12 trillion combined, a lineup that only shows up for a major deal.
• China is expected to open its financial sector to US firms, letting them sell stablecoins and other products to Chinese savers, which helps the US fund its $39 trillion debt by getting Chinese consumers to indirectly buy US government bonds.
• In return, China gets Nvidia chips for its AI buildout, access to the US market, and stable energy supply from the Western Hemisphere — Jensen Huang was added to Trump's plane last minute as a goodwill sign after a breakthrough in talks.
• A rumored $1 trillion Chinese investment into US EV factories is on the table, and Trump may shift US policy to back Taiwan reunification with China — a move that would push the strategic problem onto Japan and South Korea.
• The recent friction — sanctions, AI restrictions, rare earth threats, warship posturing — is mostly theater; both countries are too dependent on the existing global system to actually break it.

Outlook: A broad US-China deal is expected within days, restructuring trade, finance, and AI cooperation rather than escalating the trade war.