Bad news for the region and the economy: the Iran war has reignited, with Iran now attacking first and oil prices climbing back above $100.

• Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan — the first time it struck without waiting to retaliate, signaling it now sets the pace.
• Trump vowed to hit back hard, promising US strikes on Iran and killing any hope of a quick ceasefire or return to talks.
• Iran refuses to negotiate with Washington and demands control over the Strait of Hormuz, which the US won't accept.
• Oil is jumping again as strikes shut a 400,000-barrel-a-day Saudi refinery, and ships are still avoiding the US-backed shipping route.
• Iran is also backing off its nuclear commitments — no inspections, and weighing leaving the non-proliferation treaty entirely.

Outlook: Six months in, escalation looks more likely than a deal, though some think Iran may push for terms before the US midterms.