A stalled $14 billion US arms package for Taiwan is becoming a bigger diplomatic problem the longer Washington sits on it, and scholars want a small piece of it approved before Trump meets Xi next week.

• Trump travels to China next week for the APEC summit and a third meeting this year with Xi Jinping, with a further meeting planned in December when Xi visits Florida for the G20.
• Foreign policy researchers, including Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund, warn that delaying the Taiwan arms sale lets Beijing believe it has a say over the timing of US weapons deliveries to Taiwan.
• They argue the holdup hurts Taiwan's defense buildup, fuels political fighting there over defense spending, and makes US allies in Asia doubt Washington's commitment.
• The researchers want the US to notify Congress of a smaller slice of the deal first, process Taiwan's weapons requests one at a time instead of bundling them into big periodic packages, and use Congress to push for regular reporting on delivery delays.
• They say China's pushback would likely be limited since Beijing has its own reasons to preserve the US-China trade truce, based on how it reacted to the last Taiwan arms sale in December 2024.

Outlook: Watch whether Washington notifies Congress of a partial arms sale before or shortly after the Trump-Xi meeting, as further delay risks a larger backlog and more strain with Taiwan and US allies.