A Czech security think tank ran a day-long simulation of China blockading Taiwan alongside a Russian threat to the Baltics, and the big takeaway is bad news for Western deterrence: in the scenario, early warnings failed to stop the crisis from spiraling toward direct military conflict.

• The exercise had about 30 experts play national leaders — including the US, NATO, the EU, and Taiwan — facing a staged crisis: China warns Europe and Asia not to interfere with Taiwan, Russia mines Baltic shipping lanes, and China then blockades Taiwan over semiconductors and energy supplies.
• Western players reacted slowly: NATO invoked consultations and added naval patrols, the EU only agreed to watch for disinformation on platforms like TikTok, and allies failed to agree on new Russia sanctions, while Russia dangled a 20-year cheap oil and gas deal to split Europe further.
• The scenario ended with China sinking a US warship headed to help Taiwan, pushing the crisis to the edge of full-scale war — organizers said that outcome shows deterrence failed and that earlier, stronger economic pressure and clearer military signals might have prevented the escalation.
• A key vulnerability exposed was Europe's dependence on Chinese supply chains, especially rare earths and industrial materials, plus reliance on Chinese tech in telecoms, ports, and hospitals — any disruption could stall European industry and hand Russia an opening.
• Europe's low stockpiles of critical goods, including medicines now mostly made in Asia, were flagged as another weak point, and the US may be forced to choose between prioritizing military resources for Europe or Asia if both crises hit at once.

Outlook: Organizers want current government officials, not just former ones, to run these drills, warning that real crisis-readiness and legal/administrative gaps still need to be addressed given rising tension between China and Russia.