China is running a large, undeclared military exercise around Taiwan, and Taiwan's national security officials see it as a calculated pressure campaign timed around two upcoming events.

• Over 100 Chinese navy and coast guard ships have massed in the western Pacific, practicing tactics meant to blockade and isolate Taiwan.
• Officials believe China is keeping the drill unannounced on purpose, so it doesn't disrupt the diplomatic mood ahead of the APEC summit China is hosting.
• At the same time, the quiet show of force is meant to unsettle Taiwanese voters ahead of local elections, stirring fear of war without triggering public backlash from a loud, official drill.
• The scale and coordination across China's northern, eastern, and southern fleets go beyond what's needed for homeland defense, suggesting China is testing its ability to project power across the entire first island chain.
• Russia and China both test-fired submarine-launched long-range missiles within days of each other in late October, signaling the two countries are coordinating to show the US and its allies they can strike from far away despite geographic barriers.

Outlook: Expect continued low-key Chinese military pressure on Taiwan through the APEC summit and election period, without a formal declared war-game announcement.