Papua New Guinea has told Taiwan to shut its representative office there, and Taiwan's foreign ministry believes a big gas deal with China is the real reason — bad news for Taiwan's diplomatic standing in the Pacific.

• PNG first demanded the closure in July, then gave Taiwan a written promise of about a year to wind down, but abruptly cut that to about a week.
• Taiwan believes the sudden deadline followed PNG signing a major gas deal with China and sending a high-level delegation to Beijing ahead of PNG's leader attending the APEC summit in China.
• Taiwan is pulling out all staff, ending its property leases, auctioning vehicles, and destroying sensitive documents, aiming to finish by the end of November.
• All technical cooperation and aid programs to PNG are being cancelled, including scholarships — the two PNG students currently in Taiwan will lose funding and must leave after this semester.
• Taiwan's ministry says this fits a broader pattern of China ramping up pressure and inducements on its remaining diplomatic partners as Taiwan's own outreach gains ground.

Outlook: Taiwan expects to complete the pullout from Papua New Guinea by the end of November, with officials warning other countries should watch for similar Chinese pressure tactics.