NATO's approach to arming Ukraine has quietly escalated from helmets to fighter jets, and this is bad for anyone hoping to avoid a bigger confrontation with Russia.

• Western support for Ukraine started small with helmets, then moved to tanks and artillery.
• Each step up (HIMARS, F-16s) was once called a red line, then became normal.
• This slow-step approach is designed to avoid a big reaction from Russia while keeping opposition at home quiet.
• Leaders who once said a move was too risky (like Biden on F-16s) later approved it anyway.

Outlook: Expect this pattern of gradual escalation to continue, raising the risk of a bigger clash between NATO and Russia over time.