Bitcoin just hit deeply oversold levels, but history says that's a bearish sign in the short term, not a buy signal.

• Bitcoin's daily RSI dropped below 30 for the first time in months, and past instances like this were followed by more losses 8 out of 10 times over the next month.
• Bitcoin also broke below its 200-day average, a level that has historically led to a median further drop of over 11% within a month.
• Based on those patterns, the next likely low zone is around $65,000 to $68,000, lining up with a key monthly support level near $65,500.
• A trader holding a bearish options position is targeting that same $65,000-$67,000 zone to lock in profits and flip bullish, while still buying small amounts of Bitcoin at these lower prices as a long-term bet.
• Gold and tech stocks are also showing weakness, with the trader holding the largest cash position in stocks since 2022 as a hedge.

Outlook: Expect more downside pressure over the next two to four weeks, with a potential bottoming window in the back half of November before conditions improve around day 60-90.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Short-to-medium-term bearish, not macro bearish
• **Buy / accumulate:** Below the 200-day average (~$73,800); actively buying near $73,600-$73,650
• **Sell / take profit:** $67,000-$68,000 (where a bearish options position would be closed)
• **Support:** $68,000 (October-low-based estimate); $65,500 (monthly 55 EMA); $65,000
• **Resistance:** $73,800 (200-day simple moving average)
• **Targets:** $65,000-$68,000 downside zone over the next 30-60 days
• **Invalidation:** A reclaim of the $73,800 200-day average would weaken the bearish case