Iran's economy is collapsing under U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade, and the Trump administration is signaling it doesn't need to launch new military strikes because the economic pain alone is doing the job — bad news for ordinary Iranians, mixed news for U.S.-Israel war planning.

• Iran's inflation has surged toward triple digits, food prices are up over 120% from a year ago, and nearly a quarter of young people are out of work.
• U.S. officials, including Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, say the blockade and sanctions are so damaging that major combat operations aren't needed right now, though they left the door open to future strikes.
• The pullback looks less like a goodwill gesture and more like the U.S. running low on munitions for a prolonged campaign against Iran.
• Israel is reportedly pressing Trump nightly to restart military action, while Iran has so far avoided taking the bait on recent provocations.
• A real peace deal looks unlikely because the list of demands on Iran keeps expanding, making any settlement effectively unreachable.

Outlook: Expect continued economic strangulation of Iran with no near-term combat, but the risk of renewed U.S. or Israeli strikes stays on the table as long as Israel keeps pushing for escalation.