Israel's government is in limbo as opposition figure Gadi Eisenkot tries to build a coalition to replace Benjamin Netanyahu, who is clinging to power as caretaker prime minister and refuses to step off the political stage even if he loses the job.

• Eisenkot has more parties backing him than Netanyahu after the latest election, and Israel's president gave him the first shot at forming a government, with 28 days (plus a possible two-week extension) to find a majority.
• The math is messy: Eisenkot's most realistic paths run through ultra-Orthodox parties or Arab parties, both of which could blow up his coalition over the military draft exemption for religious students or other red lines.
• A change in power would shift Israel's approach on Iran toward a more cautious, less war-hungry posture, and would mean a crackdown on Jewish settler violence in the West Bank, but it would not bring a softer line on Gaza or a Palestinian state.
• Netanyahu says he'll stay on as opposition leader even if he loses the premiership, much like Trump did after 2020, so he could try to claw back power later.
• If neither side reaches a majority, Israel heads to yet another election, a scenario political watchers see as more likely to favor Netanyahu than Eisenkot.

Outlook: Eisenkot has a real but fragile window to form a government; if he fails, new elections could hand Netanyahu another comeback.