How Trump Blew It With Latinos in Texas

Nov 10, 2026

Texas Republicans suffered a historic collapse with Latino voters, and the swing was driven almost entirely by pocketbook pain rather than party loyalty.

  • Latino voters swung away from Republicans by roughly 38% statewide, and by around 60% in the Rio Grande Valley border region.
  • High gas and grocery prices, immigration crackdowns hurting local construction jobs, and anger over school funding cuts (some schools dropped to a four-day week) all combined into a "perfect storm" against the ruling party.
  • Winning Democratic campaigns leaned into populist, Bernie Sanders-style messaging — blaming billionaires and corruption rather than left-vs-right culture fights — and it worked even in deep-red districts.
  • The shift isn't loyalty to Democrats; voters are frustrated and want relief on costs plus accountability on corruption, meaning the gains could reverse just as fast if Democrats don't deliver real, near-term economic help.
  • Ted Cruz is now the only statewide Republican officeholder left in Texas, and other Republicans in border districts look vulnerable heading into the next election.

Outlook: Both parties now face pressure to lead with affordability and anti-corruption messaging, with the 2028 primary shaping up as a fight over which side can credibly claim the working-class, populist mantle.

← Latest · Archive