China appears to be running a large, unannounced military exercise meant to simulate surrounding and isolating Taiwan, and Taiwan's defense minister says it's a direct threat to regional peace.

• US-based researchers say China may be conducting a major, undeclared drill that mimics encircling and cutting off Taiwan, aiming to shake Taiwan's confidence in its own defense.
• Taiwan's defense minister says China has a carrier group built around the Liaoning along with other fleet formations operating in the western Pacific, plus drills aimed at blocking outside forces from the area.
• Taiwan's national security chief says over 100 Chinese navy and coast guard ships are currently positioned in the western Pacific.
• Taiwan says it's staying alert and won't provoke Beijing, but also won't bow to the pressure.
• Taiwan's defense ministry says it's tracking the activity closely with allies and will respond appropriately.

Outlook: Expect Taiwan to keep monitoring Chinese naval movements with allied intelligence-sharing, with tensions likely to stay elevated but no immediate escalation signaled.