Bitcoin looks set to break below a key long-term support line, which historically leads to more pain before any recovery, and that's bad news for anyone expecting a quick bounce back to new highs.

• Bitcoin is on the verge of closing below its 200-day average for the first time in over 60 days, a rare event that has happened only 10 times since 2013.
• In 9 of those 10 past cases, Bitcoin eventually climbed back above that average within a month, but first it typically fell further, with a drop of about 10% being typical.
• A separate pattern around monthly price action also points to more downside this month, with similar math pointing to the same rough target zone.
• Traditional stocks also show warning signs on longer-term charts, suggesting a broader market high may be forming between late October and early December.
• Despite the bearish setups, dip-buying continues: buying more Bitcoin at these lower levels is being treated as a good long-term value opportunity.

Outlook: A break below the 200-day average points to further short-term weakness before any recovery, with a bounce back above the average still likely over the longer run.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bearish short-term, bullish longer-term
• **Buy / accumulate:** Dip-buying now and on further declines toward $65,000–$67,000
• **Sell / take profit:** Considering profit-taking on a bearish options position if price drops toward $68,000
• **Support:** $71,000 (weekly bounce zone); $68,000 (weekly 200-day average); $65,750 (monthly 55 EMA)
• **Resistance:** $78,200 (weekly mid-band); $81,000 (last lower high)
• **Targets:** $65,000–$67,000 downside zone; $68,100 median target from monthly breakdown stat
• **Invalidation:** A close back above last week's high would turn the view bullish again; $73,133 is the line for today's close that would confirm the breakdown