A US foreign policy analyst warns that whether America restarts military action against Iran now hinges on how badly Republicans do in today's midterms, and that the next six weeks could be among the most dangerous of the entire conflict.

• Trump told Fox News on election day that he isn't looking to "kill lots of people" over Iran, but will if he feels forced to.
• A former State Department chief of staff says there's a real chance Iran already secretly built a nuclear weapon or two after Israel's strikes, and is holding it in reserve rather than testing it.
• He argues Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is the bigger risk for actually using a nuclear weapon, since Netanyahu is fighting to stay out of prison and in power.
• New defense legislation would give Israel deep, permanent access inside the US military and intelligence system, which is why Trump says he can cut off Israel's yearly aid money — it becomes symbolic once that access is baked in.
• China has signaled to Iran's leadership that it will back them, raising the risk that a new Iran-Israel flare-up pulls in other major powers and rattles the global economy.

Outlook: Expect the real decision point on US military action to come after midterm results are known, with the next six weeks — until the new Congress is seated in January — flagged as the most volatile stretch.