Xi Jinping looks set to secure a fourth term as China's leader, but cracks in his inner circle suggest his long-term grip on power is weaker than it appears.

• A record purge at China's recent party meeting removed over 30 senior officials, including two men once deeply trusted by Xi: his point man on Xinjiang and the military's former second-in-command.
• Xi has run out of real rivals to purge, so he's now targeting former allies and loyalists he fears could become threats as the 2027 leadership transition nears.
• By eliminating so many of his own trusted people, Xi has thinned out the loyal network that used to protect him from being outmaneuvered, leaving him more isolated.
• Military leaders have not publicly backed Xi's ouster of his former top general, a sign his control over the army's own promotion system may be slipping.
• Officials across China are reportedly growing more passive and risk-averse as purges spread fear, which could make governing harder over time.

Outlook: Xi is still expected to start a fourth term in 2027, but growing isolation and a shrinking circle of loyal protectors mean his odds of finishing that term all the way to 2032 are shakier than before.