Bitcoin's drop below October's low is a bad sign for bulls, based on a historical pattern that has never once produced a positive November after this setup.

• Bitcoin fell under October's low, something that in every past instance (5 for 5) led to a red November.
• That history is the strongest argument against a bullish rest-of-month, even though a short-term bounce is still possible.
• The coin is stuck making a lower high, meaning the downtrend isn't confirmed broken yet.
• A daily close back above the recent breakdown point would flip the picture back to bullish.
• Until that happens, the overall daily trend still points down.

Outlook: Bitcoin needs a daily close back above the breakdown level to turn the trend bullish again; until then, the path of least resistance stays down.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bearish while below the breakdown level; trend turns bullish on reclaim
• **Resistance:** $81,900 (Wednesday's breakdown high)
• **Invalidation:** Daily close above $81,900