Trump's Escalation Risk Over the Next Eight Weeks
A political-violence expert is warning that the period right after the US midterms could turn dangerous for markets and world stability, driven by possible war escalation and a power struggle in Washington.
- The weeks following the midterms are seen as a high-risk window, similar to past transitions of power that turned violent.
- Trump has said repeatedly he plans to escalate the conflict with Iran once the elections are over, and a plan reportedly exists to strike Iranian targets over several days.
- If the Iran conflict heats up, Putin may conclude he won't get the Ukrainian territory he wants from Trump and could shift to a new, more aggressive strategy.
- That could pressure Europe to respond militarily, raising the risk of a much wider conflict.
- A bigger war or political crisis could let Trump invoke emergency powers, with ripple effects feared to carry into 2027.
Outlook: Watch for signs of Iran strikes and how Putin reacts — both are flagged as the key triggers that could turn this into a much bigger crisis.