Vice President JD Vance just blamed the Iran war for the Republicans' midterm wipeout, a split from Trump that looks a lot like the opening move of a 2028 campaign.

• Vance posted a long analysis saying Republican turnout was fine, but many Trump voters switched and voted for Democrats, citing the war, high living costs, and the America-first message as top reasons.
• Trump himself admitted the war cost them the election, but waved it off as worth it since Iran was stopped from getting a nuclear weapon.
• The split has turned into a fight inside the Republican party, with hardline pro-war voices accusing Vance of throwing Israel under the bus, while others say the real mistake was not finishing the war harder.
• Critics point out Vance publicly defended the war and attacked corruption allegations for months, making it hard for him to now claim he was secretly against it all along.
• Behind the scenes, the Trump administration kept piling sanctions on Iran and reportedly ran secret strikes there for weeks, holding off on announcing them to avoid hurting Republicans at the polls.

Outlook: Expect more infighting among Republicans over the war and the economy as Vance, Rubio, and others start jockeying for 2028 while distancing themselves from Trump's record.