Republicans took a beating in the midterms, and the blame game inside the party points straight at the Iran war and the cost of living, which is bad news for Trump heading into 2026.

• Republicans lost big across the board — House seats, governors, attorneys general, and state legislatures — though historically smaller than the midterm losses Clinton and Obama suffered.
• Vance pointed to data showing swing voters who backed Trump in 2024 defected mainly over four issues: ending the Iran war, the cost of living, putting America first, and the relationship with Israel.
• Trump admitted the Iran war hurt him at the polls by pushing gas prices up, but said he'd still do it again because stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon mattered more.
• Some see Vance's public break from Trump on the war as early positioning for a 2028 run, especially since Vance had publicly defended the strikes back when they happened.
• Stocks actually rallied after the election, with investors betting that a more divided government means fewer sudden policy swings.

Outlook: Expect continued infighting among Republicans over the Iran war and immigration-adjacent "America First" messaging as the party regroups before the next election cycle.