Bitcoin has slipped into a historically bad pattern, and the outlook is bearish for the next few weeks.

• Bitcoin fell below October's low, something that has never once led to a positive November in its history — past cases saw median losses of around 17%.
• December has also been negative every time this November pattern has shown up since 2018, with past drops ranging from roughly 3% to 37%.
• Key downside levels to watch: around $73,000-$73,700 as a first zone, then $68,100, with a worse-case scenario near the mid-$60,000s.
• A recovery case exists too — reclaiming roughly $81,900 to $82,000 would flip the short-term trend back to bullish, but that looks far away right now.
• Longer-term, the bigger uptrend is still seen as intact, with the bottom more likely months away rather than a new all-time low.

Outlook: Expect more sideways-to-down price action into December unless Bitcoin quickly reclaims the $77,000-$82,000 range, with mid-$60,000s seen as a likely worst-case floor.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bearish short-term, bullish long-term (macro uptrend still intact)
• **Buy / accumulate:** Mid-$60,000s (worst-case dip zone); already buying in current dip zone
• **Support:** $73,000-$73,700; $68,100; mid-$60,000s; extreme case $59,300
• **Resistance:** $77,000 (55 EMA); $79,590 (level needed to avoid a bearish "silver cross"); $81,900 (key reclaim level)
• **Targets:** Downside - $68,100, then mid-$60,000s; Upside (if reclaimed) - $82,500 toward prior highs
• **Invalidation:** Reclaiming $81,900 on a daily close flips the trend bullish