New airstrikes on Iran have broken out just before the US midterms, and the finger-pointing over who did it points toward a much bigger war coming soon — bad news for anyone hoping for peace or lower gas prices.

• Iran was hit again, and while Israel denied it, US officials later admitted the strikes were American, carried out quietly for weeks even as Trump talked up a possible peace deal.
• A US senator who sat in on an intelligence briefing has already said a much larger, "catastrophic" military strike on Iran is being planned, expected to happen right after the midterms.
• The timing makes sense politically — a peace deal before the election would have been a political win, so the lack of one signals leaders are holding off a bigger strike until after voters go to the polls.
• New claims that Iran might use chemical weapons are being treated skeptically by US allies and even some American officials, who see it as pressure from Israel to restart the war, similar to the fake weapons claims used to justify the Iraq war.
• Israel is the one country in the region actually confirmed to have weapons of mass destruction, which undercuts the case for targeting Iran over the same issue.

Outlook: Expect a major escalation in the Iran conflict shortly after the midterm elections, with gas prices and regional instability likely to rise as a result.