The Start of the AI Boom (Or Depression): How Cooked Are We?
AI spending is accelerating fast, and so far the economy is handling it fine — good news for chip makers and AI investors, though nervousness is building around funding costs.
- Job openings data beat expectations and prior months got revised up, a sign the labor market is still holding steady, not collapsing.
- Big tech's off-balance-sheet AI spending commitments have more than doubled in five months, now over $4 trillion, showing the AI buildout is speeding up, not slowing down.
- Chip rental prices are rising across both new and years-old hardware, while the cost of running AI models has dropped by more than half — a sign AI is becoming genuinely more useful and more in demand.
- AMD, Apple, and other chipmakers posted strong earnings and growing profit margins, while some AI-adjacent stocks have gotten cheaper due to unrelated sell-offs, creating what looks like a buying opportunity in hardware.
- Funding this buildout is getting more expensive — borrowing costs for big players like Oracle and Microsoft are rising, and OpenAI had to scale back a planned fundraise, showing some cracks in investor confidence.
Outlook: Spending is expected to keep climbing through 2027–2028, but rising debt costs and political uncertainty from the upcoming election could cause more short-term market swings before the AI buildout plays out.