A major Democratic wave this election cycle could put several unlikely Republican-held Senate seats in play, with weak GOP candidates making the difference in a handful of states.

• A big anti-Trump wave could flip seats in Maine, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Mississippi that aren't usually competitive.
• Weak Republican candidates are the key factor: Tom Cotton in Arkansas, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, and replacements for ousted senators in Louisiana and South Carolina are all underperforming.
• Trump created some of this weakness himself by pushing out Senator Cassidy in Louisiana and forcing a weaker successor through the primary after Lindsey Graham's death in South Carolina.
• Florida remains out of reach for Democrats even in this favorable environment, despite a strong candidate in Angie Nixon.
• The common thread driving the wave is voter anger over Trump breaking his promise to avoid new wars and lower prices.

Outlook: If voter anger over prices and foreign conflicts keeps building, several of these normally safe Republican seats could flip, though Arkansas remains the least certain pickup.