Breaking Points' Election Map Predictions

Nov 03, 2026

Election forecasters are calling several traditionally red states surprisingly competitive, a bad sign for Republicans this cycle.

  • Kansas and Ohio are seen as winnable for Democrats, largely because weak Republican candidates are pushing even libertarian-leaning voters to cross over.
  • Nebraska is expected to stay red, but only barely, despite what's described as poor candidate choices by state Republicans.
  • Texas and South Carolina are considered true toss-ups; one forecaster still predicts Texas stays red, betting that Texas voters revert to old habits on election day itself.
  • Michigan is unanimously expected to go blue among the forecasters.

Outlook: Final results will hinge heavily on candidate quality in the closest states, with Wednesday's post-election analysis expected to focus on Republican missteps.

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