Taiwan's government expects Beijing to lean harder on pressure tactics short of outright war, which is bad news for Taiwan and regional stability but suggests a full-scale invasion is less likely in the near term.

• Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council says China will likely increase use of coast guard ships, research vessels, and militia boats to challenge Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines in regional waters without triggering open conflict.
• Analysts say a purge of senior Chinese military leaders has left Xi Jinping short on commanders he trusts for a full-scale war, making large-scale military action against Taiwan less likely before 2030.
• With fewer trusted generals, China is expected to rely more on legal pressure, economic coercion, propaganda, and cross-border intimidation instead of direct military force.
• Large-scale military drills will likely keep increasing anyway, since China's military marks its 100th founding anniversary next year and wants to show strength even without real combat.
• Experts warn Xi's tight grip on power is discouraging honest reporting from officials, which could lower the quality of his information and raise the risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation.

Outlook: Expect more gray-zone pressure and legal and economic tactics against Taiwan, with military drills increasing but a direct war seen as unlikely over the next few years.