Early voting data points to a rough midterm for Republicans, with Hispanic and Black voters swinging hard toward Democrats in states the GOP normally counts on.

• Hispanic turnout is surging in early voting in Texas, and most of it looks like it's breaking against Republicans, including Senate candidate Ken Paxton.
• Florida's Hispanic voters have moved sharply too, with some areas swinging 25 to 30 points away from the GOP compared to recent elections, even among Cuban and Venezuelan voters who used to lean conservative.
• Republicans are blamed for taking these voters for granted after courting them in 2024, without following up with real outreach.
• Black voter turnout is also spiking in deep red Southern states like Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina, raising the odds of upset wins for Democrats there.
• Polling in states like Kansas and Nebraska shows unusually close races for offices that are normally easy Republican wins.

Outlook: Expect multiple surprise Democratic wins on election night, with Republicans relying on a strong Election Day turnout to offset their early vote losses.