This is a mixed-to-positive setup for stocks heading into the midterms, with an Iran deal still the biggest swing factor for oil and gas prices.

• Iran attacks on Gulf shipping have risen sharply, and some banks' base case is a US-Israel-Saudi coalition strike after the midterms that drags into early 2027 — that would mean high oil and gas prices through the holidays.
• There's a more hopeful signal too: Iran says the tone of US talks has improved and it may reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of a deal, which would be good for oil prices and gas prices if it happens before the election.
• Betting markets see Democrats as heavy favorites to take the House, with a full Republican sweep (and Trump's proposed $5,000 stimulus check) given only a slim chance.
• History favors stocks after midterms — the S&P 500 has risen in the six months following every midterm since 1950, regardless of which party wins.
• A gridlocked government (split House and Senate) is seen as the worst outcome for getting anything done, while either full Republican or full Democratic control would make deal-making easier for Trump.

Outlook: Markets will likely swing on two things this week — any Iran deal news and Tuesday's election results — with a seasonally strong post-midterm stretch for stocks as the historical backdrop.