A pro-Israel think tank is pushing the Trump administration toward tougher sanctions and even military threats against Cuba, which is bad news for ordinary Cubans caught in the middle.

• The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) has published several papers this year urging Trump to keep the oil embargo on Cuba and let power outages get worse rather than ease up.
• The group wants to punish foreign companies that trade with or send aid to Cuba, and it's floated the idea of military action against the country.
• The goal isn't just new leadership — the FDD wants Cuba's whole political and economic system torn down and rebuilt as a free-market economy, plus cut off from Russia, China, and Iran.
• Cuba has backed the Palestinian cause and cut ties with Israel decades ago, which appears to be a big reason it's a target now.
• Regular Cuban people, not the government, bear the brunt of the suffering from sanctions and blackouts.

Outlook: Expect continued pressure for harsher sanctions and sanctions enforcement against Cuba, with growing risk of military threats if the current approach doesn't force a change in government.