Europe's push toward war with Russia is framed as a desperate bid to save a crumbling 80-year-old system, and it's bad news for European stability either way it goes.

• The thinking in European capitals: beating Russia using Ukraine as the front line would keep the US anchored in Europe and give Europe a battle-hardened Ukraine to lean on against Russia.
• Losing instead leaves Europe facing an angry Russia with Ukraine gone as a buffer, and possibly hostile, since many Ukrainians resent being used as a proxy.
• The US is expected to pivot away from Europe toward the Western Hemisphere and East Asia as the world becomes multipolar, leaving Europe less of a priority.
• The war has already backfired economically: Europe cut itself off from cheap energy, is de-industrializing, and has poured hundreds of billions into the fight.
• As European economies weaken, the resulting political and social strain is pushing some politicians to keep leaning on the war to stay in power.

Outlook: Expect continued European escalation rhetoric even as the economic damage deepens, with no clear path to a quick resolution.