Markets are falling and oil is spiking as fear grows that the US and Iran are sliding back toward open war instead of reaching a deal.

• Oil prices are jumping toward levels not seen since 2008, with Wall Street warning of a possible spike toward $140 a barrel if a shortfall hits global supply, as Iranian proxies attack tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
• Gold, usually a safe haven in times of fear, is falling too, while stocks are selling off and bond yields stay high — a sign investors see few safe places to hide right now.
• The US is quietly moving troops, defenses, and aircraft into the region while still trying to negotiate through Qatar and other allies, a mix of war preparation and last-minute diplomacy.
• The odds of a quick deal are seen as fading each day, since both sides are digging in, and if talks fail after the US election, there is less incentive for either side to compromise.
• Rising oil and fuel costs are feeding inflation, which could force the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer — a problem for consumers and for companies, including AI firms, that rely on cheap borrowing.

Outlook: A deal within days would ease pressure on markets and oil, but each day without one raises the risk of a wider war, higher oil prices, and a longer period of high inflation and interest rates.