Days before the midterms, Republican campaign strategy looks shaky, with signs that Trump's own rallies may be hurting the candidates he's trying to help.

Trump has abruptly canceled trips to Kansas and other races, and JD Vance pulled out of a Michigan stop too, shifting to virtual events instead. Republican sources say internal data suggests the in-person rallies are now a net negative, driving away independent voters even in deep-red states, a sign of how unpopular Trump has become even with his own base.

At a conservative town hall, Vance was asked a sincere question about why young people can't afford homes and afford to start families — he responded with an off-topic joke instead of addressing the issue, then falsely claimed Republicans had banned Wall Street firms from buying up homes, even though that bill was actually vetoed by Trump. The moment is spreading online and doing more harm than good for the campaign's closing message.

Separately, a Vivek Ramaswamy-linked ad attacking a Democratic candidate backfired badly: it used the candidate's elderly, visibly unwell mother to make false claims about the family's past, and those claims were quickly debunked by public records. The ad has since been pulled and shortened after backlash. Senator Chris Murphy also warned that Trump has had the military draw up aggressive war plans targeting Iran that could be used around the election, calling them "insane" and warning they'd escalate the conflict and damage the economy further.

Outlook: Expect continued defensive, erratic closing-week messaging from Republicans as rally turnout concerns, the Vance gaffe, and the ad scandal dominate coverage instead of policy, with real risk that depressed turnout costs the GOP close races.