A senator who received a classified intelligence briefing says the administration's plan for renewed military action against Iran risks spiraling into a far bigger, more destructive war, which would be bad news for the economy and global oil markets.

• The briefed war plan reportedly includes hitting civilian infrastructure, going well beyond a quick, limited strike.
• Iran has threatened to hit back at Gulf oil and gas facilities, which could send already-high gas prices much higher.
• A full-blown war is expected to be delayed until after the midterm elections, adding political uncertainty on top of market risk.
• Rising gas and fertilizer costs tied to the conflict are already feeding into inflation and supply concerns.

Outlook: If military action resumes after the midterms and expands as described, expect a sharp jump in oil and gas prices with knock-on pressure on inflation and the broader economy.