The top US Army officer in the Pacific says the window during which China could be capable and willing to seize Taiwan by force is still a live threat, which is bad news for Taiwan and regional stability but shapes how US forces are being positioned.

• General Ronald Clark, head of US Army Pacific, said his command is planning around the assumption China could have the military capability to take Taiwan by force as soon next year, and might actually attempt it.
• This builds on the "Davidson window" warning from 2021, when Admiral Philip Davidson told the US Senate that China was building toward having that capability by 2027.
• A former CIA director said in 2023 that intelligence showed China's leader had ordered the military to be ready to invade by 2027, but the latest US intelligence assessment this year said China isn't currently planning a 2027 invasion and has no fixed timeline for unification.
• Because of this risk window, the US Army is rotating troops, equipment, and supplies onto islands in the chain closest to China, west of the international date line, under a plan called "Army Ready Forward."

Outlook: Expect the US to keep reinforcing forward positions near Taiwan even though top intelligence officials say an invasion isn't imminent, as militaries plan for the worst case rather than the most likely one.