Serbia's longtime president just lost his grip on power, and it's bad news for anyone betting on a smooth, predictable outcome in the Balkans.

• A student-led protest movement that started over a deadly building collapse two years ago has toppled the party of a leader who had run the country for 14 years.
• The vote split almost evenly between the old ruling party and the new student-backed movement, so no one yet knows who will actually run the government.
• The outgoing government stays in charge until January, leaving months of uncertainty over foreign policy, including whether Serbia will keep refusing to sanction Russia or recognize Kosovo.
• The protest movement is a grab-bag of different political views with no shared platform beyond removing the president, raising questions about whether it can govern once in power.
• Business owners and investors are getting nervous, since economic growth tends to stall when political uncertainty rises.

Outlook: Expect a tense transition through January, with Western governments pushing Serbia toward sanctioning Russia and recognizing Kosovo as conditions for EU membership.