Israel's caretaker government and the US are both edging toward renewed conflict with Iran, while Netanyahu lashes out at Arab voters to save his political future.

• The US has told Gulf Arab countries to brace for a short, intense new round of strikes on Iran once the American midterm elections are over, likely aimed at energy infrastructure.
• A last-minute diplomatic push is underway, with Qatar trying to get Iran to allow nuclear inspectors in exchange for minor sanctions relief, but Iran is holding out for bigger concessions and the US has shown no new flexibility.
• Netanyahu, now leading a caretaker government after a disputed vote, is accusing Arab parties of stealing the election through bribery and fraud, despite high Arab voter turnout being legal and Likud itself facing its own bribery scandal.
• Both Netanyahu and Trump have political incentives to restart the Iran conflict: Netanyahu uses war to delay his corruption trial and rally support, while Trump may see a crisis as a distraction from expected midterm losses.
• Oil prices are already elevated and gas prices are climbing, a trend likely to worsen if strikes on Iran go forward.

Outlook: Strikes on Iran appear increasingly likely once the US midterms pass, and Netanyahu's political survival will keep pushing Israel further from genuine power-sharing with Arab citizens.