The Fed looks set to avoid raising rates even though inflation is running hotter than official numbers show, and that's being blamed on politics ahead of the midterms.

• Almost all economists surveyed think the Fed won't raise rates right now, even though hot inflation numbers suggest it should.
• The worry is the Fed is going easy because of the midterm elections, not because the economy is actually fine.
• Government inflation numbers are seen as understating how expensive things really are, making the problem look smaller than it is.
• Bond markets are under stress as other countries sell off U.S. debt, pushing rates up and weakening the dollar anyway, which could force the Fed's hand later.
• A market drop of 10-25% is seen as possible, driven by a debt and AI-spending bubble compared to the dot-com crash, with a government stimulus and buying opportunity in crypto and gold expected to follow.

Outlook: Expect rising bond rates and a possible stock market correction in the coming months, followed by stimulus efforts and buying interest in crypto, gold, and silver.