Early voting numbers suggest Democrats may be headed for a strong midterm showing, while Trump's team scrambles to defend red strongholds and tensions with Iran simmer in the background.

• Early voter turnout is unusually high in swing states like Michigan, Texas, and Ohio, which some read as a sign of Democratic enthusiasm ahead of the midterms.
• Trump is holding multiple rallies a day in states he previously won easily, which looks like a defensive move rather than a sign of confidence.
• Voters cite gas prices and ongoing wars as top concerns, and polling shows Americans now trust Democrats more than Republicans on the economy for the first time in years.
• There are new warnings that the US and Israel could launch fresh strikes on Iran after the midterms, raising fear that a war escalation could be used to distract from election losses.
• Data on voter fraud claims shows only a handful of isolated, mostly accidental cases nationwide, undercutting claims of organized cheating.
• Separately, former Brazilian president Bolsonaro's whereabouts are unclear after reports he moved between Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador, with investigators also probing foreign funding links tied to JD Vance's network.

Outlook: All eyes are on election day results and whether the Fed holds interest rates steady at today's meeting, which will shape the economic backdrop for the vote.